Convo with PandaMan: From Satoshi to Bitcoin: Breaking Down the Basics 2023-09-23
Episode Summary:
The document is an interview discussing Bitcoin with an individual referred to as PandaMan. The conversation touches on Bitcoin's history, its volatility, and its potential future. Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations, with notable peaks and troughs over the years. The concept of "halvening" is explained, where the mining reward for Bitcoin gets halved approximately every four years. This reduction in supply, if demand remains constant, can lead to price increases. Bitcoin is decentralized, meaning no central authority controls it. This makes it resistant to traditional financial pitfalls like bank failures or currency devaluation. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins, with the last one expected to be mined in 2140. The smallest unit of Bitcoin is called a Satoshi, and there are 100 million Satoshis in a Bitcoin. The interview also touches on the global debt and how Bitcoin, being a fixed currency, contrasts with fiat currencies that can be inflated. Bitcoin ATMs are mentioned as a convenient way for people to buy or sell Bitcoin, though they might come with higher premiums. The topic of altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin) is also discussed, with PandaMan cautioning about their extreme volatility.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations over the years.
- The concept of "halvening" can lead to price increases due to reduced mining rewards.
- Bitcoin is decentralized, offering protection against traditional financial issues.
- There's a fixed limit of 21 million Bitcoins.
- Bitcoin contrasts with fiat currencies that can be inflated.
- Bitcoin ATMs offer a convenient way to transact but might have higher premiums.
- Altcoins are extremely volatile and can be risky investments.
Convo with PandaMan: From Satoshi to Bitcoin: Breaking Down the Basics 2023-09-23
So we're here talking about bitcoin with PandaMan. And this is for everyone who doesn't know squat about Bitcoin. Well, you might know squat. You've heard it's a thing. You know you can buy it. You've heard it's used for illicit activities, and you've also heard that it's the salvation against the fiat currency. What that means, you don't really know. So hopefully panda man can help us figure that all out. Panda man, how are you doing?
I'm doing good. How about yourself?
Not too bad. Bitcoin has had quite a ride. During its initial phase, which I'll call it, it rose steadily. Seemingly every four years, it would rise by an order of magnitude, and then at some point when the futures exchange came around, it stabilized somewhat to a more or a less steep increase in price, wouldn't you say? In the last couple of years, it's definitely been slower on its rise.
That is correct. It's still rising, but it has a lot more ups and downs, and it behaves more like a traditional currency or stock.
And wouldn't you attribute that to the futures exchange?
I mean, that's part of it. There is a big market there for the futures and the options for it, but it's been definitely volatile throughout its own history. I mean, it's gone from one dollars to $35 down to two in 2011. It went from $70 to 1165, down to 165 from 2013 to 2014. And then in 2017, it went from one thousand dollars to twenty thousand dollars, down to $3,200 between 2017 and 2018.
So you just see this as another cycle that we're going through?
Yeah. I mean, 2021, we had what's called a double top, where we went from originally around $4,000 to $64,000, down to $30,000, up to $69,000, and then the low was about $15,000 in November of '22. Okay?
For those of you who do not know about bitcoin is it has a havlening, which means that the amount of bitcoin given per mined coin block.
Yeah. So every ten minutes a block is created, and roughly every four years, the mining reward that goes to the miners who provide the security for bitcoin gets cut in half. So right now, every ten minutes, a miner who solves the block gets six and a half bitcoin per block, and pretty soon it's going to go in April of 2024. That amount of emission will be like 3.25 coins per block. What traditionally happens with the halvening, I mean, the halvening is like if demand stays at the same and supply is cut, basic economics tells you that prices will rise. So when that happens, yeah, we get these rises, get these real exuberant rises in price, and then it corrects harshly to the downside, we find the bottom and then it starts over.
Simple as that, right? Pretty much. But it depends on what's going on in the world, too.
Yeah.
Bitcoin is a big contra indicator. Why don't you talk a little bit about that?
Yeah, with bitcoin, bitcoin is a decentralized currency. No one controls it, no one owns it, so there's no central party that has effect over it. If you have your own bitcoin, it's yours. Nobody can claim it counterparty it, rehypothecate it to somebody else if it's in your own possession. So that's like right now where the value is. That if you have bitcoin, if there's a bank failure, it doesn't matter, you're the bank. If they devalue currencies like they've been doing this last year, especially around the world, then they can't devalue your bitcoin. They can't say, you have less bitcoin now, or they're going to make double the bitcoin, they're going to double the market. There's only ever going to be 21 million bitcoin in existence, and the last bitcoin will be mined in roughly 2140. So every bitcoin, there's 21 million bitcoin, and every bitcoin can be broken down to 100 million pieces. The basic unit of measure in bitcoin is a Satoshi. So there's 100 million satoshis in a bitcoin. So bitcoin can go behind the left of the decimal eight places. That being said, if you take existing bitcoin right now, which is 19.2 million bitcoin in existence, and divide that among 8 billion people, everybody roughly gets 25 to 35,000 satoshis if it was divided equally. So these days, having some bitcoin for the future could potentially turn valuable. Does that explain it?
Yeah, it does explain it. And I just read an article let me see if I can do this math right. How many bitcoin did you say there would ever be 21 million? Sorry. No, I just read an article today talking about the $307 trillion in global debt that now exists.
Yes.
And I just did a quick calculation of how much debt exists per satoshi, and it's surprisingly high. It's got to be a very big number. Yeah, it really is. 1 Satoshi = $0.14619 of Global Debt
Bitcoin and Global Debt
Given:
- Global Debt: $307 trillion
- US Federal Debt: $33 trillion
- Total Bitcoin: 21 million
- 1 Bitcoin = 100 million Satoshi
- Value of 1 Bitcoin in terms of Debt: $1523809.52
- Value of 1 Satoshi in terms of Debt: $0.0152380952
- Value of $1 Debt ($USD) in number of Satoshi: 65.625
- Value of 1 Bitcoin in terms of Debt: $14619047.62
- Value of 1 Satoshi in terms of Debt: $0.1461904762
- Value of $1 Debt ($USD) in number of Satoshi: 6.8403908795
US Federal Debt:
Global Debt:
Yeah.
When you start looking at the total number of dollars of debt that exist, or any currency that's a fiat currency around the world, and you start looking at, compared to a fixed currency with bitcoin, where there will never be any inflation because it can't be printed or copied or really manipulated in any sort of way.
Yeah. I mean, you could view bitcoin as a currency. You can view it as, like a bear asset. It's something that you can hold in your own possession that will not be bailed in, like a bank bail in or bail out. Currency devaluation to protect the financier class of the world, because the debts hold by a bunch of financial institutions and they'll, like, in 2008, will probably get bailed out. Yeah.
So if someone were to buy bitcoin, they would go to an exchange like Gemini or Coinbase, create an account.
There's exchanges all over the world, but mainly here in the United States, it's Coinbase, Gemini, Binance USA, and there's a couple other schwann. You could buy bitcoin there. And so, yeah, you can convert your dollars into bitcoin.
Now. Do any of those have any legal troubles?
Binance USA is in trouble right now. I mean, there's a lot of talk of them and there's been a lot of SEC filings on them.
They're getting a lot of scrutiny?
Yeah. And Coinbase does have a lawsuit against the SEC too. But you're going to use the exchange to get the bitcoin and then put it in your own wallet. So you would be the self custodian of the bitcoin. Right? That's what I'm not sure everyone understands is the bitcoin doesn't have to live in the cloud at the exchange. You can download it to a physical wallet that you keep on your desk and it still exists in the ledger, that coin.
But you contain the actual wallet physically?
Correct. You you hold your keys to that bitcoin 100%. But you have to take great care and great responsibility. You have to manage that bitcoin as cash.
Yeah.
You would have to take full responsibility for it and manage it with prudence.
Yeah. No, I mean legit. In the early days of bitcoin, I lost some bitcoin and I'm upset, but I also know that it was my own damn fault for losing the password.
Yes
I'm sure not to do that anymore. Right. Like, I've taken assurances to make sure that won't happen again. Luckily, I bought the bitcoin when it was cheap, but I'm sure it's not going to lose that much bitcoin now. No, there's regret.
Yeah.
Bitcoin has a lot of regret. Why don't you talk on that?
There's a lot of volatility in this market. There's a lot of ups and there's a lot of downs, and some people, they get I'm not offering financial advice, but you shouldn't really put your whole bag of money into bitcoin. You should have a certain amount that you're comfortable with and that you can hold it for a long period of time. Five to nine years would be ideal, but you don't want to be careless and reckless with it or bet the farm that the number is going to keep on going up, because it does go up, but then it does correct. It does correct harshly, too.
Yeah. Don't count on it to save you on a rainy day.
Well, five to nine years from now, for sure.
Yeah.
But if you need to make money next week or next month, it's probably not the best thing to do. Yeah, but if you're looking at a long term savings vehicle, as more people come in, as more businesses, nation states come into the space, there's only so much bitcoin as more people want it, then yeah, price goes up, then it becomes more valuable, and over time, it does become more valuable. Bitcoin is like a glacier. It moves, and you don't notice it until it's really right on top of you.
See, I've always heard it compared to a ponzi scheme, but I've always called it a reverse ponzi scheme, where essentially, the more people are in it, the more valuable it becomes.
Yeah. I mean, people bring up the ponzi scheme thing all the time. They also bring up the tulip mania from the Dutch country.
Yeah.
No, that's everyone's favorite. It's tulip mania. But the tulip mania only lasted three years. Bitcoin has been around for 14 years, so it's been the longest running ponzi scheme ever. Most ponzi schemes, they don't last a year or two at the most. They really crash and they go up high and then they crash and burn.
Well, no, in the year 2140, you said.
Yeah, 2140. I mean, everybody alive today, as I'm speaking will be dead.
Yeah. So it'll have some weird curvature of its lifetime, where as it gets further towards the end, it'll become less significant, I would imagine.
Less significant, more stable. It it's just part of society. Yeah, but that's a long time. That's long after everyone who's alive right now is dead. 117 years from now.
Yeah, 117 years. So maybe children who are born today might live that long to see the end of bitcoin. Maybe. Possibly.
Maybe if they're lucky or just a few of them, like today. There's not that many people that are 100 years old.
Yeah, well, there's a number of them, but they go off quick. After 100, it goes off real quick. Yeah. So, you know, if I've always thought of bitcoin as gold, that's in the form of a digital wallet.
Well, yeah, there's some characteristics that bitcoin has of gold, but it also has easier portability and easier transmissibility around the world. So it's easier to send bitcoin from here to India than to try to send to or even cash or even
I mean, the only comes close to it is the swift system.
Yeah, but it's quicker than the swift system. You can send a billion dollars in value in bitcoin in ten or 20 minutes around the world. You can't deduce that type of money on. The swift system takes days, and it's decentralized and it's cash finality. Like, I send my bitcoin, it gets to their wallet. It's done, it's final. There's no chargebacks. There's no, oh, we made a mistake, or a delay. It's there. Once it gets to their wallet, they control it 100%. So that does leave in some of the problems that Swift does solve, is that you do have mistakes.
You do send it to the wrong wallet. You do these things. I mean, people are human. So what are some of the things that exist in bitcoin to help with that?
There's no chargebacks. So once you send your coins, that's it. You send 100,000 satoshis, it leaves your wallet and goes to their wallet. There's no chargebacks.
No, I guess what I mean is, let's say someone you bought something from someone or you sold something to someone, and they're supposed to send you bitcoin in payment. What sort of system exists to make sure they got it or you got it?
The whole transaction works. Like you would create what's called a wallet address. You would create an address for them to send the coin to, and then once that coin gets sent to that address, you can confirm it on the blockchain, that it's valid, and then it's been done. And both parties can see that the transaction has been completed. The buyer can see that the coin is in his wallet, and the seller can say, I sent you this coin 20 minutes ago or an hour ago, someone's in there saying, yeah, I sent it. I sent the money. Yeah, because it's a verifiable public verified record that's out there for both parties. Or a lot of people do third party. Like, they'll bring another third party to mediate and you can show, hey, two people saying that it's been sent, and one can say it's not, but they could show, hey, here's the address that it was sent to and it's there. Yeah. So you can prove without a doubt that payment was sent and it was received.
Okay. I've noticed seeing bitcoin ATMs in some of the newer convenience stores. Is that just the deal where you have some sort of card with, like, coinbase and you go, withdraw your bitcoin?
No, those are third parties. Those are separate entities.
Oh, so like a third party ATM.
Yeah, third party ATM. The premiums are usually a little bit higher than you would use on an exchange like Gemini or coinbase, but you're going to pay probably anywhere from 8% to 13% over spot price at the time of purchase at a bitcoin ATM. Like at a gas station? Yeah, because I don't see a very good way unless you want to use banks and unless you want to use the exchange and unless you want to do an online purchase for bitcoin to make it into the physical world, unless you start having terminals set up at stores where you can just flash a QR code. And another one here in the United States is not as popular, but lightning network is starting to pick up, which is on top of bitcoin. It's a layer two solution that's being used more in the other parts of the world right now.
How does lightning work?
Well, lightning is a layer two solution, and it provides smaller transactions and a quicker speed than on the main chain. And what you do is if you're at a retail shop or a stall or whatever you want to call it, the seller would create what's called an invoice, a bitcoin invoice, and that would create the QR code. And then with your lightning wallet, one of them is like moon. You would pay through lightning to that vendor. You would scan that QR code and then send the bitcoin or send the satoshis. I mean, it's really more satoshi level at that point, right, because you're talking $10 or something like that, which is yeah. Fifty cents. Five dollars. Ten dollars.
So you're paying 8%. No, you're paying whatever. What's the lightning premium to use that network?
Lightning is pretty cheap. I mean, you can get into subset purchase, like subset transaction fees. It'll cost you one satoshi to send, like $10.
Oh, wow. Okay.
Yeah.
So really, it's still the cash bottleneck where you're paying the premium to either get cash for your bitcoin or pay cash for bitcoin or on ATMs are taken out.
Yeah, they are convenient for a lot of people.
And you could use those to conienience. It's just a savings. You could just put bitcoin in and hold on to that.
Yeah. I think most people, a lot of people will use exchanges for now, but there's a market, they're popping up, so somebody's using them, those ATMs. Yeah, I've noticed that because I wouldn't imagine that people would have enough bitcoin to use those ATMs. Smaller amounts, maybe $500,000 worth of value.
Yeah. It just seems like a weird convenience store purchase.
I don't know. Who knows? I'd have to look into the business that does that more.
Now, you have a very strong opinion about altcoins.
Altcoins are part of the market, and they've grown over the years. They're really good for speculating and for trading bitcoin. You think bitcoin is volatile? All coins are like they're volatile on steroids. And the majority of people who try to trade all coins, they get wrecked one day by incredible amount of money, and they think it lasts forever and they keep playing the game.
Yeah. And they lose it all.
Yeah. I mean, there's tons of people who have lost their life savings on all coins.
Sad.
Yeah. But unless you can sit there and trade, you're capable of doing that type of trading, then go for it. But if you think you're going to buy an altcoin and just hold it for a year or two, you're probably going to lose all your money.
Yeah.
You really need to put in that type of work to really be successful at it. And most people are not willing or capable of putting in that type of work. People have jobs. If you have a job that you like and you love and you're happy with your job and you're making good money and it supports your lifestyle, or if you have your own business that you're focusing on, then just look at Bitcoin as a savings vehicle that you could put some cash into and hold it long term if you're interested in the space.
Yeah.
Because the altcoins are just basically a playground for people to make bets and they usually lose. But bitcoin is a different coin than, I would say, the rest. It so far stood the test of time. It stood 14 years. Bitcoin is the one that started this market. It's the market leader. It's the most battle tested, battle hardened cryptocurrency that's been out there. Like nobody's taking the top spot. Now all the Wall street types are coming in. They see the value in it, they see the opportunity in it. They feel the effects of inflation. And now you have bitcoin ETFs, electronically traded funds that will be on the stock market. Even there, you can get exposure through your own brokerage account and not have to hold your bitcoin and allow a third party to manage the coins for you.
If it's on an ETF, you still can see the coin on the exchange. It's not like it becomes rehypothesized into just the whole ETF. Like you can see the value.
Yeah, exactly.
Hmm. I guess the best time to buy bitcoin was always yesterday, right?
Yeah. It's a good idea. If you bought it five years ago, you'd be happier today. If you bought it anytime before 2019, you'd be very happy today.
Yeah. Well, one thing that a lot of people do is they see the price of bitcoin going up and they think, oh, I'm going to jump on that wagon. And they don't realize that it comes back down.
Yeah. That's all markets.
Like, things start to go up and then more people are excited and they jump in because they think they're going to make a very it's a very obvious pattern in bitcoin that I wish more people were able to understand. It has its ups and downs, but it really has. Like, when the halvening happens, there's very serious patterns that occur.
Yeah. I mean, there's definitely patterns. Things happen in the space. Things go up, things go down. But the best probably solution for a lot of people are interested in space is what's called dollar cost averaging. Buying every two weeks, buying every month. And then you can catch some of the upside and minimize your risk. Because, I hate to say it, but a lot of people look at stocks and cryptocurrencies like a casino. You're going to get lucky. And a lot of people, they bet the house, they go all in at once and then they can't handle the volatility or the swings because they're like, oh, my God, I just put a bunch of money here. I need money to pay the rent next week, but I'm down and they panic sell.
Yeah, that's for sure. Yeah, that's a pretty good way that I think a lot of people buy stocks unless they dollar cost, average it, or unless they just have an automatic purchase plan. Because generally if you have an automatic purchase plan and you just buy every week, just buy $10, $20, $50, $100, $500, whatever you don't need for nine years or once a month, just twice a month, whatever, and just go and buy it. And you'll probably come ahead nine years from now.
Yeah. I mean, five to nine years should be your time frame in bitcoin. Yeah. But once you get into it, you're never going to stop. Well, because you see the benefits of it. Yeah, I'll never stop this in this industry and what's going on, there's something new to learn every day. There's new ideas, new things coming out. Once you get into being a bitcoiner, you never stop.
Well, I would say once you get into being a bitcoiner, it opens up a lot of questions and just kind of makes us start thinking about a lot of things a little bit differently when you start paying attention to the economic news and why things happen and what that meant. Especially if you're paying attention to the price of bitcoin and the price of the dollar and the price of everything else.
Yeah, exactly.
I'm going to wrap it up here because I think that was a pretty good session.
Okay, that works. I had fun.
Yeah, I'm going to see I don't know if it actually recorded. I hope it did because something's going on with my screen where it keeps flashing at me, which I'm pretty pissed at. But they just put in a new power transformer on my neighborhood, so I'm not really sure if something's fucked up with my power now.
Do you got a search protector on your yeah, I do. Do you got, like a battery backup?
I don't I think I'm going to put one of those on it. Yeah.
See if that causes it to stabilize. Yeah. Also check all your cables.
Yeah, yeah, definitely. All right, well, thank you very much.
All right, man, I'll talk to you later then.
Okay. All right, take care. All.